September 30, 2022
Democrats warn that there is a ‘canary at the coal mine’ for Latino voters. California recall
WASHINGTON — California Gov. Gavin Newsom trounced the effort to remove him from office in Tuesday’s recall election. But the rosy result may obscure an erosion of support among Latino voters for Democrats that has some in the party worried about the future.“Donald Trump got a historic number of Latino votes in 2020, and you…

WASHINGTON — California Governor. Gavin Newsom defeated in the attempt to remove him from his office in Tuesday’s recall vote .. However, the positive result could mask a decline in support from Latino voters for Democrats which has many party members worried about their future.

“Donald Trump received a record number of Latino votes 2020,. You can say it was because this or that, but it isn’t like Larry Elder made it through. “There is something else happening,” Michael Trujillo, a Democratic strategist, said. He was referring to the Republican leader in the failed recall effort.

The former President made inroads in areas like South Florida and Texas’ Rio Grande Valley last year with Latino voters . Many Democrats attributed these results to Trump’s unique personality, the peculiarities of Latino voters in those areas, or the wrinkles that come with holding an election during a crisis.

But some data from California indicates that the issue may be even more widespread than it was before the 2020 elections. This could prove to be a troubling sign for Democrats as they prepare for the 2022 midterms. In these times, Latino voters will play an important role in the fight for the House in California.

Democrats have long warned they are taking support among minorities — including Black and Hispanic voters — for granted, assuming they will support liberals without doing enough work to win their backing. Trujillo stated that something is happening in California’s blue state, where a segment of the Latino population has been trending in the wrong way.

California Latino voters sided with Newsom and against the recall 60 to 40 percent, according to an NBC News exit poll — a slightly smaller margin than Newsom and other Democrats have won in the past in California, especially among Latino men, and nearly identical to the 59 to 41 percent split among whites.

By comparison, Black voters broke 83 to 17 percent in favor of Newsom while Asian Americans backed the governor 64 to 36 percent, according to the exit poll.

In his first election to the governorship three years ago, Newsom won 64 percent of Latino voters, according to NBC News exit polls from the time.

Both whites and Latinos saw a large gender gap, with Latina women more likely to side with Newsom by 19 percentage points and white women more likely to back the governor by 16 points. Dorian Caal (director of civic engagement research at nonpartisan NALEO Educational Fund), an offshoot of National Association of Latino Elected Officials) cautioned against reading into exit polls too early.

” They’re known for being limited with subgroups,” Caal stated. You have more room for error when you drill deeper and deeper. There’s a lot more that needs to be unpacked as more and more information gets released.”

Caal noted, however, that mainstream political discourse often obscures the diversity among Latino voters, with differences along gender, education and age lines, among others, mirroring more familiar breakdowns among whites.

The exit polls could be strengthened by actual vote data from Imperial, the most Latino county in the state, which is located along the Mexican border. More than 80% of residents live there.

The recall actually performed slightly better in the heavily Latino Imperial County than it did statewide, with 38.7 percent of voters in the county voting to remove Newsom from office, compared to 36.1 percent in the entire state, though not all votes have been counted yet.

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016 won Imperial County by 41 percentage points. President Joe Biden won it by 25 percentage points in 2020. Now, the pro-Newsom anti-recall effort is winning it by 22.6 percentage points so far.

” There is a canary at the coal mine, and it’s called Imperial County,” Trujillo stated. We need to cure the cause. Trujillo said that “that canary has a cold and we as parties must do more than give it a cough suppressant or a throat lozenge.” We need to cure the cause.”

Nearly 4 in 10 Californians are Latino, so even small shifts in their vote preferences can be significant.

” We all do such an excellent job of dissecting white electorate. But for some reason, we can’t do the same with Latinos,” stated Christian Arana (Vice President of Policy at the California-based Latino Community Foundation).

” “Because outreach historically was late, underinvested, and frankly, kinda lazy, I feel that a lot people are just missing it all here,” he stated. “You can’t just come to our community and talk to us about immigration.”

Arana noted, for instance, that about a quarter of small businesses in California are owned by Latinos. For example, a Latino college graduate in Los Angeles could vote differently than a relative living in California’s agricultural Central Valley.

“The big warning is that you can’t relent on the outreach. He stated that outreach must be done every day. “We’re a complex and broad swath of people who make up the Latino vote, and the candidates and political parties who recognize that and also invest in outreach will probably fare the best.”

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